The Debate that Never Happened

Republican mayoral candidate, Tom Aljian, has been seeking a debate with his democratic opponent, Fred Tagliarini. In all likelihood, Tagliarini will decline for the same reasons Aljian wants to debate. Tagliarini has far greater name recognition and deeper ties to the community than Aljian and a debate would raise Aljian’s profile. Tagliarini is also viewed as more qualified, given his long years of community service, his years on the planning board, and his present role as interim councilman; a debate would give Aljian the opportunity to demonstrate that he, too, is qualified.

However, the refusal to debate also betrays weakness. Unlike Aljian, Tagliarini has a record. As councilman, he supported the tax increase, supported the pension deferral, and supported taking “surplus” library funds. While on the planning board, he supported controversial development that fueled spending rather than provide tax relief. Lastly, Tagliarini, a lifelong Republican, chose to become a Democrat this year and thereby attach himself to all the scandals and unsavory individuals connected to the local Democratic Party.

Still, his personal relationships in town and reputation for integrity should help him make the argument – Don’t judge me by my friends. But will it be enough?

In 2005, Mayor Sobel narrowly won with 80 votes. In 2007, the Democrats won with an average 250-vote margin, notwithstanding that the Green Party candidates captured over 300 votes each.

Let’s assume the Green Party votes will split evenly among the two parties. Let’s also assume that the scandals, tax increases, coah and section 8 housing, unwanted development, and patronage games have disenfranchised a number of democratic supporters. In order to win, Tagliarini has only three options – 1) Increase democratic turnout 2) Attract republican voters 3) Discourage republican support. All three will be tough challenges.

I don’t believe Tagliarini will be able to outdo Councilman Vinci’s get-out-the-vote efforts. Especially not this year with Corzine trailing badly in the polls, Obama’s poll numbers dropping, and the simple fact that Tagliarini isn’t the political animal that Vinci is.

Regarding republican votes, the overwhelming majority of people who personally know Tagliarini will vote for him, including republicans. As for all the other republicans, not a chance. Tagliarini voted to raise taxes during a recession. There’s just no way to spin that.

Discouraging republican support may have been a possibility if there wasn’t a gubernatorial election. Republicans will turn out in the same numbers they did the last time, if not more.

There is one other possibility. Tagliarini could showcase his opponent’s shortcomings and characterize Aljian as unqualified for the mayoralty. But that would require a debate. Otherwise, Tagliarini’s only strategy is to hope the Republicans fail more than he does. >>> Read more!