"Don’t place your trust in princes" - Psalms 146
When the Bernie Madoff story first broke, the public was incredulous that one man could steal so much. Then, as details emerged, the public was incredulous that otherwise intelligent people could be so stupid when it came to their lifesavings. How could anyone believe a financial guru who claims to deliver consistent returns regardless of market conditions?
Well, I could think of a whole bunch of people who act just like that. Specifically, the public sector unions. Public union workers spend hundreds of millions of dollars a year to elect political halfwits who know nothing about finance but promise lavish retirement benefits to be delivered long after their terms expire. Then, for reasons unknown, these government employees, who should know better than anyone, plan their entire retirement around these empty promises from unaccountable politicians long gone.
Here’s the list of former Aberdeen employees earning a government “guaranteed” pension. The dollar amounts don’t include health benefits, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, or any other program.
Here are some quick tidbits –
- In the Matawan-Aberdeen school district, for every dollar of salary going to a school employee, the state is spending 40 cents for a district retiree
- Including Aberdeen’s portion of the school district and library, the state will spend over $10 million dollars in pension payments this year. That compares to a $15 million municipal budget and $9 million municipal tax levy
- In addition to the pension payments, for every 5 school district employees on the state healthcare plan, so are 4 district retirees
Ah, you say, we don’t have to worry about that because the state manages a pension fund.
Well, about that fund.
Pension funds are supposed to work as follows – Each year they get a little larger so that the investment income earned is enough to cover payouts without endangering the principal. Unfortunately, the state pension plans are designed to fail for several reasons.
Using the Teachers Pension and Annuity Fund as an example, consider the following –
- Pensions are based upon salaries, which, over the past decade, have risen far faster than inflation or the market
- In the drive for smaller class sizes and one-on-one instruction, more teachers means more pension liabilities
- When the market's down, the fund has to sell assets on the cheap to fund benefits, meaning the fund gets smaller and goes into a death spiral as it will never earn enough to payout benefits
- Pension managers are pushed to assume higher levels of risk to meet the state's unrealistic projections
In 2000-01, the TPAF paid out $1.33 billion in benefits. In 2009-10, the payout was $3.08 billion, a 230% increase in just nine years.
During that same time period, the fund itself has shrunk from $31.05 billion to $25.89 billion. In other words, over a nine-year period, the ratio of assets to one-year payouts, has dropped from 23.35 to 8.41.
The dramatic fall in pension assets occurred despite a sharp rise in pension contributions, an increase from $371.6 million in 2000-01 to $658.8 million in 2009-2010.
As the chart below shows (all numbers in billions), even assuming rosy projections, as the state likes to do, that contributions will increase 8% a year, net return on investments will consistently run a little over 5% a year, and pension liabilities, in contrast to history and common sense, will only increase 4% a year, the Teachers Annuity and Pension Fund will go bankrupt in under 15 years.
| Year | Withdrawal | Contribution | Assets |
| 2010 | 3.08 | 0.66 | 25.89 |
| 2011 | 3.2032 | 0.7128 | 24.6941 |
| 2012 | 3.331328 | 0.769824 | 23.3673 |
| 2013 | 3.464581 | 0.83141 | 21.90249 |
| 2014 | 3.603164 | 0.897923 | 20.29238 |
| 2015 | 3.747291 | 0.969757 | 18.52946 |
| 2016 | 3.897183 | 1.047337 | 16.60609 |
| 2017 | 4.05307 | 1.131124 | 14.51445 |
| 2018 | 4.215193 | 1.221614 | 12.24659 |
| 2019 | 4.3838 | 1.319343 | 9.794465 |
| 2020 | 4.559152 | 1.42489 | 7.149926 |
| 2021 | 4.741518 | 1.538882 | 4.304786 |
| 2022 | 4.931179 | 1.661992 | 1.250838 |
| 2023 | 5.128426 | 1.794952 | -2.0201 |
| 2024 | 5.333563 | 1.938548 | -5.51612 |
| 2025 | 5.546906 | 2.093632 | -9.2452 |
The unions’ response will be to declare unfunded pensions and health benefits are the state’s problem and the state must fix it. In other words, the unions will turn to the very political process that put them in the whole in the first place. Imagine what will happen if they get their wish. >>> Read more!